Oilfield business case with NPV and IRR in minutes
Full financial model: CAPEX, OPEX, taxes, realization price, discounting. The platform delivers NPV, IRR, PBP and a sensitivity matrix across 6 key drivers — in a single run.
How the business case is built
Each block has its own input data source. The platform supports on-the-fly changes to any parameter and recalculates the entire case.
Production profile
From reservoir simulation: peak, decline rate, water cut, GOR. Source: reservoir simulation agent.
CAPEX
Drilling, surface facilities, infrastructure — by benchmark norms. unit cost × volume.
OPEX
Lifting, water injection, processing, transport, well workovers. $/bbl · $/Mcf.
Taxes
MET, EPT, reverse excise, corporate income tax, HTR incentives. Auto-detection of the regime.
Realization price
Brent / Urals / gas spot. Base + 3 price scenarios.
NPV / IRR / PBP
Cash flow, discounting, metrics and sensitivity matrix. WACC 12–15%.
When you need a ready financial model
The same case — three audiences, different requirements for depth and format.
Investment committee
Summary one-pager with NPV/IRR and three scenarios. Go/no-go decision.
Bank / Financing
Cash flow for DSCR, covenants, payback. Year-by-year breakdown.
Top management
Value levers: which 2–3 drivers turn a loss-making asset into a profitable one.
M&A analyst
Tornado analysis, exit multiples, peer comparison.
Six levers that drive NPV
The platform automatically runs ±20% across every key driver and shows which one actually moves asset value.
- Oil price (Brent / Urals)The main lever — ±20% typically shifts NPV by ±30–40%.
- Surface CAPEXOften overestimated — optimization yields +15–25% NPV.
- OPEX per tonSensitive on mature assets with declining production.
- Production profileP10 → P90 produces a 2–3x spread in NPV.
- Tax regimeSwitching to EPT or HTR incentives can be a deciding factor.
- WACC / discount rate±1 pp on WACC shifts NPV by ~5–8%.
Excel financial model vs AVP AI
A standard upstream financial model and its AI equivalent on the same asset.
Excel financial model
- TIME1–2 weeksto build and validate the model
- SCEN2–3 scenarioslimited by manual effort
- TAXManual selectionof MET/EPT and incentives — at the author's discretion
- SENSOne tornadoagainst a fixed price
- UPDEach edit takes a daybroken formulas, inconsistencies
AVP AI
- TIME10 minutesfor a full case with tornado
- SCEN6+ scenarios in parallelprice, profile, taxes, CAPEX
- TAXAuto-detection of the regimewith applicable incentives
- SENSTornado across 6 driversat once for every price scenario
- UPDEdit → recalc in < 1 secfor any parameter in the case
Frequently asked questions about the business case
By default: a base scenario based on the analyst consensus forecast, plus +20%, −20% and a stress scenario (for example, $40/bbl Brent). The user can set custom assumptions: a fixed price, a year-by-year price curve, currency, or the Urals-to-Brent discount formula.
Yes. The platform automatically determines the applicable tax regime (MET or EPT), HTR incentives, offshore incentives, mature-field incentives and water-cut adjustments. If a field has several reservoirs under different regimes, each is calculated separately.
By default — 12–15% real WACC for Russian upstream. You can set your own (for example, 10% for a large publicly traded operator or 18–20% for a project with high geological uncertainty).
All results are stored as CSV files with a full audit trail behind every value. They can be opened in Excel or Python for further refinement by your in-house team and approval at the investment committee.
We will build NPV / IRR / sensitivity for your field
Run a case in 10 minutes: prices, taxes, CAPEX, production profile. Get a ready one-pager for the investment committee and a CSV export with a full audit trail.